The so-called Arab Spring has gone wrong. It started 2½ years ago – about – & there was enormous optimism. It seemed like 1848 in Europe. But the forces of repression have re-asserted themselves. The military, Islam & vested interests have conspired to make the area a hell hole. Events in Egypt are similar to events in Tiananmen Square in 1989.
How can it be? Only a few months ago a president was actually elected. He wasn’t perfect; no leader is. Apart from anything else, as an Islamist he was busy reducing women’s rights. The plan seemed to be to impose Sharia law. It did seem that the Muslim Brothers, the ruling party, planned to self perpetuate itself in the way that that has happened, for example in Iran. But it cannot be said with certainty that this was the case.
The Egyptian army has just gone in & killed thousands of protestors. At least in other countries – Iran, for example – the authorities put down protests (mainly) with tear gas.
What were the Egyptian army thinking of? What is their plan? It is not really reasonable to suppose that they intend they will hand back power to an elected government. The people of Egypt demanded the death penalty for Mubarak for much less. The only people who benefit from all this are Egypt’s enemies, if which Israel is the main one.
It would be so useful to be able foresee the future. In which case… well the human race is the human race & probably nothing would have been done any differently
Freedom of speech, democracy (so called) are hard fought for. They require constant vigilance. People, some people, lay down their lives for it.
But in the end the population take it all for granted & lose interest in voting. Gradually voting figures reduce until they sink below the 30 per cent level.
Democracy – so called – by democracy we normally mean democracy Western style, with a few powerful political parties & elections every few years, doesn’t eliminate the possibility of corruption.
The Arab Spring has ended badly – or at least that it how it looks at the moment. In none of the countries where there have been elections, has it turned out well.
It is difficult to know exactly when it started because there are so many events that could be said to be starting points. But it seems to have been driven by social media. It has also been driven by huge dollops of optimism & idealism. The blood of the victims in Egypt would seem to have put an end to it.
The prognostications are not good.